Monday, May 25, 2009

Preparing To Invest: Read Some Books!

For many of us, the web has become an important learning tool. Search engines have made it wonderfully easy to find information on specific topics. But to me, the web, with no promise that content has been edited or is correct and complete, is not a great tool for getting comprehensive information on broad topics, which is exactly what you want as you prepare to invest.

There is also the question of how the site stays in business. For most, it means selling advertising, which raises issues of conflict of interest. For instance, can I trust a review of credit cards to be fair if the site also runs ads for certain credit card companies? How do I know that a comparison of brokerages is not biased when I see ads for banks running on the site?

The use of hyperlinks on web sites, while at the very core of what makes the web great, means that users can read about whatever pages they like on a site. But it also means that they will probably read only what they like. So structuring information on a broad topic is very difficult.

Newspapers and magazines have similar issues, and also need to constantly generate new content. It does not matter if there are not any new and useful ideas to write about--staying in business for them means writing new articles.

There are plenty of other learning methods, each with their own issues, like learning from chats with friends, or from TV.

To me, the best learning tools are books. Here's why I think so:
  • Content is structured: Unless this book was written and edited carelessly, the content is presented in a logical progression. Focus is given to points that are important in the context of the broader topic. Articles on the web and in magazines and newspapers lose this context.
  • Content is comprehensive: To many people, investing means buying stocks. I'm always surprised by how many people do not understand or consider bonds or other asset classes like real estate. A good investing book will teach you about the different asset classes and how they may (or may not) fit into your portfolio. Articles from other sources mainly focus on one point (usually stocks) and are not as able as books to present information in the context of the full spectrum of investing options.
  • Once the book is in your hands, the sale is complete. Unless you've picked up a book that is trying to sell you another product, the content is not as influenced by advertisers.
To be sure, there are some books out there that are real stinkers--books written to evangelize the latest mania, to sell another product, short-sighted books, and just plain bad advice books. But all these problems also exist in the pages of non-books, without the positive points that books enjoy.

There is still a place for non-books, especially for doing quick research into specific topics or getting the beat of current trends. But while you are building a foundation of knowledge as you prepare to invest, go read some books!

Tuesday, May 19, 2009

More Increases To Vanguard ETF Expense Ratios

It looks like the expense ratios on many of Vanguard's ETFs have changed recently. It wasn't that long ago that the expense ratio for VWO was raised by 0.02%.

Some other Vanguard ETFs of interest to Canadians have changed in the last few weeks:
  • Vanguard's Total Stock Market ETF (VTI) has raised its expense ratio from 0.07% to 0.09% as of 04/29/2009.
  • The expense ratio for the Vanguard Europe Pacific ETF (VEA) was raised from 0.15% to 0.16% on 04/24/2009
  • All of their bond ETFs now have an expense ratio of 0.14%
Vanguard's expense ratios are still very low, but I hope this trend doesn't continue.

Thursday, May 7, 2009

When to Buy a Currency Hedged Fund

Many international index funds have a version that is currency hedged as well as one that is not. For instance, in the TD e-series funds, there are non-hedged and hedged versions of the TD US Index and TD International Index funds. These funds can have drastically different performance numbers when the Canadian dollar fluctuates against the native currency or currencies of the companies in the index. Here are they yearly performance numbers for those TD funds.

Fund200320042005200620072008
TD U.S. Index4.52.21.714.7-11.1-21.7
TD U.S. Index Currency Neutral30.011.13.314.03.1-39.0
TD International Index13.410.910.225.5-6.0-27.9
TD International Index Currency Neutral21.711.127.816.63.4-42.2

Notice how in certain years, the performance of a fund's hedged (currency neutral) version can be quite different from the performance of the non-hedged version. This is because of currency fluctuations (tracking error also plays a part). In the case of the US index, the currency fluctuation is between the CAD and the USD, and in the International index, it is between the CAD and the various currencies in the international index.

Let's take a look at currency movements from 2003 to 2008:

So the currency neutral versions of the funds did better in years when the Canadian dollar rose against the US dollar. The non-hedged versions did better in years when the Canadian dollar fell versus the US dollar. Note that it is the change in the exchange rate and not the actual value of the exchange rate that affects returns.

Ideally, then, you want to buy the currency neutral version in years when the Canadian dollar is low, hoping to cash in when the CAD rises. Similarly, you want to buy the non-hedged version when the Canadian dollar is high, to take advantage of when the CAD falls.

Of course, timing such a move is pretty difficult, but we can look at historical data to get some idea of what could be considered a high or low Canadian dollar. Here is a chart of exchange rate data beginning in 1971 and ending May 2009:

I won't claim to know where the USD/CAD exchange rate will go, but this chart tells us that during this period, 1.00 CAD = 1 USD was pretty high, and around 1.00 CAD = 0.70 USD was pretty low. Again, I am not saying that this is how things will be in the future.

Using these numbers as a guide, we could perhaps set a rule to buy the currency hedged versions of the funds when 1.00 CAD is under 0.80 USD and buy the non-hedged version when 1.00 CAD is above 0.80 USD.

I can't guarantee that this will work in the future, but looking at the historical numbers, this appears to be a reasonable idea. There maybe other factors that would discourage this kind of thinking. For instance, you might not want to have two versions of the same index because of transaction costs or perhaps your currency hedged fund costs a lot more than your non-hedged version.

Also note that I've looked only at the CAD versus USD exchange rate. In international funds, you should consider the native currencies in the fund.

Another consideration: I am assuming that the investor wants to keep his/her investments in Canadian dollars. If you are open to holding the fund in US dollars, for example the TD U.S. Index ($US) (TDB952) instead of the TD US. Index Currency Neutral fund (TDB904), the fund in native dollars usually performs better than the one hedged in CAD due to tracking error. However, I think that the observations on currency fluctuations still holds.

And finally: Since currency movements are not predictable, and seem to even out over long periods, the choice between hedged or non-hedged funds probably isn't that important for the long term buy-and-hold investor, which is why this post is filed under the Noise tag.

Note: All chart graphics used in this post are © 2009 by Prof. Werner Antweiler, University of British Columbia, Vancouver BC, Canada and were generated using the tool at http://fx.sauder.ubc.ca/plot.html.

Monday, April 27, 2009

Get All The Benefits That You Qualify For

When we enter the various stages of our lives, we are often so busy adjusting to the changes that we don't look into benefits that we should be getting. Since you must apply for many of the benefits available, a lot of us miss out on those benefits for some time while we sort out our lives. Some of the significant events that can qualify you for benefits that you were not previously collecting are:
  • Marriage
  • The birth of a child
  • Change in income or employment status
  • Health changes and deaths in the family
  • Retirement
For instance, with the birth of a child, here are some of the things you can do:
  • Set up an RESP for the child's education
  • Collect the Universal Child Care Benefit
  • Collect the Canada Child Tax Benefit
It is hard to keep track of all the programs that are available, both from the federal government as well as from your province, but the government has set up a handy web site to help you find all the benefits that you qualify for at CanadaBenefits.gc.ca. Tell it your province of residence, and head over to the Benefits Finder. You'll be asked a few questions and then be given a nice list of applicable benefits. Each benefit is marked as either federal or provincial.

Using this site, you can make sure that you are getting all the benefits for your current situation, and you can also use it see what you may be qualified to receive in hypothetical situations. Use the tool to plan ahead for events like the birth of a child so that when that event happens and you're busy waking up at 3am to change diapers, you won't need to also scramble to learn about and apply for (or put off for a few years) the benefits that you are entitled to.

Wednesday, April 22, 2009

Tax Terminology for Beginners

In conversations amongst my colleagues and friends, I've found that many people are not really aware of some of the basic terminology used in a tax return. While it's certainly not required to know all the terms used in the tax code, having basic knowledge of the meaning of the numbers you are calculating can clear up what is actually going on in your tax return. So here's my short list of tax terminology for beginners:

Total Income - Your gross income, before any deductions. Includes income from employment, investments, pensions, and government benefits.
Net Income - Your total income, after certain deductions have been applied. This number is used for determining eligibility for income-tested benefits, but is not used to calculate your personal income tax since it still contains some non-taxable income.
Taxable Income - Your net income, minus non-taxable income. Used to calculate your personal income tax.
Deduction - An expense that you declare (claim) on your tax return that is subtracted from your income when calculating your net income and taxable income. By reducing your taxable income, you reduce your tax paid.
Tax credit - A tax credit is applied directly to tax owing, reducing the amount you owe. This differs from a deduction in that a deduction reduces your taxable income.
Non-refundable tax credit - A tax credit that is not paid out as cash to you if it reduces your taxes owing to below zero.
RRSP - A plan provided by the government under which you can place investments that will grow tax-free. An RRSP is not a specific investment, or account, but acts like an umbrella. The size of your umbrella (contribution limit) is set by the CRA and anything (that is RRSP-eligible) that you put under it that fits in your contribution limit grows tax-free.
Adjusted Cost Base (ACB) - The cost of an item. This includes your purchase price, and costs related to the purchase. If you purchase the same item on more than one occasion, add the additional purchase prices and costs for those purchases. In a mutual fund (or ETF), if you receive distributions that are a Return of Capital, this will reduce your ACB, since your money is effectively being returned to you. Use the ACB to calculate your capital gains or losses when you sell the item.

Saturday, April 18, 2009

IIROC Request for Comments on Proposed OTC Rules

The IIROC has published its proposed rules for over-the-counter securities, including bonds. Straight from the document, the proposed amendments will:
  • Require Dealer Members to fairly and reasonably price securities traded in OTC markets;
  • Require Dealer Members to disclose yield to maturity on trade confirmations for fixed-income securities and notations for callable and variable rate securities; and
  • Require Dealer Members to include on trade confirmations sent to retail clients in respect of OTC transactions a statement indicating that they have earned remuneration on those transactions unless the amount of any mark-up or mark-down, commissions and other service charges is disclosed on the confirmation.
The full document can be found here. Instructions on how to send your comments in are included in the document. Comments must be received by July 16, 2009.

Wednesday, April 15, 2009

Disclosure Rules for Bond Trading

The Globe and Mail reports that the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada will publish a proposal for regulations this Friday governing bond trading with the intent to bring more transparency into the pricing and commissions charged by brokerages.

This sounds like a great idea (although we'll have to wait and see what the rules actually are). In the US, the FINRA TRACE system can be used to get the prices on recent bond trades, but here in Canada it's much more difficult to know if you are getting a fair price.

Even if (and it's a big "if") we are currently always getting fair prices from our brokers, being able to see what commissions are being charged will hopefully keep our brokers honest and help the retail investor decide how to spend his/her money.

Other highlights from the article are:
  • "better disclosure of the bond's yield" (we'll have to see what this really means)
  • "a 'fair pricing rule' to enable regulators to punish dealers who trade bonds at prices far from the true market price"
I hope we'll eventually see a TRACE-like system so that we will be able to see near-real time trading information for bonds like we do with stocks.